Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that increasing disease prevalence and the emergence of novel therapies will drive 5% annual growth in the type 2 diabetes drug market through 2016.

The new Pharmacor report entitled Type 2 Diabetes finds that growth will be driven by sales of Merck's Januvia and Amylin/Eli Lilly/Alkermes's Byetta, which will help offset market constraint caused by the entry of low-cost generic drugs during the 2006-2016 study period. The report finds that the success of Januvia and Byetta-two drugs that target the incretin pathway-will be a result of the fact that neither drug causes weight gain and that both carry a low risk of causing hypoglycemia.

According to the report, the most active drug development for type 2 diabetes is seen in the drug classes that Januvia and Byetta belong to- dipeptidyl peptidase-IV (DPP-IV) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP- 1) analogues, respectively. Another active area of development is in the sodium-dependent glucose cotransporter (SGLT) class, which is also being pursued for potentially novel weight-neutral treatments for type 2 diabetes. By 2016, however, generic erosion will pose a significant barrier to increased uptake of novel therapies.

"In the world's major pharmaceutical markets, the classes most commonly used in first-, second-, and third-line therapy-metformin, sulfonylureas, and PPAR-gamma agonists-will all be available as generics by 2016," said Muneer Ahmad, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "Reliance on low-cost generic drugs will pose a significant barrier to increased uptake of novel therapies, which must demonstrate significant improvements in efficacy, safety, or side effects in order to compete favorably in the market."

About Type 2 Diabetes

Type 2 diabetes, one of the greatest threats to public health in the 21st century, is a leading cause of blindness, non-traumatic amputations, end-stage renal disease, and cardiovascular disease-stroke and heart attacks. For 2007, the direct costs related to diabetes care in the United States are estimated to be $103 billion.

About Decision Resources

Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets.

All company, brand, or product names contained in this document may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

  For more information, contact:   Elizabeth Marshall   Decision Resources, Inc.   781-296-2563   emarshall@dresources.com 

SOURCE: Decision Resources

CONTACT: Elizabeth Marshall of Decision Resources, Inc., +1-781-296-2563
or emarshall@dresources.com

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