Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that increasing disease prevalence and the emergence of novel therapies will drive 5% annual growth in the type 2 diabetes drug market through 2016.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Type 2 Diabetes finds that growth will be driven by sales of Merck's Januvia and Amylin/Eli Lilly/Alkermes's Byetta, which will help offset market constraint caused by the entry of low-cost generic drugs during the 2006-2016 study period. The report finds that the success of Januvia and Byetta-two drugs that target the incretin pathway-will be a result of the fact that neither drug causes weight gain and that both carry a low risk of causing hypoglycemia.
According to the report, the most active drug development for type 2 diabetes is seen in the drug classes that Januvia and Byetta belong to- dipeptidyl peptidase-IV (DPP-IV) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP- 1) analogues, respectively. Another active area of development is in the sodium-dependent glucose cotransporter (SGLT) class, which is also being pursued for potentially novel weight-neutral treatments for type 2 diabetes. By 2016, however, generic erosion will pose a significant barrier to increased uptake of novel therapies.
"In the world's major pharmaceutical markets, the classes most commonly used in first-, second-, and third-line therapy-metformin, sulfonylureas, and PPAR-gamma agonists-will all be available as generics by 2016," said Muneer Ahmad, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "Reliance on low-cost generic drugs will pose a significant barrier to increased uptake of novel therapies, which must demonstrate significant improvements in efficacy, safety, or side effects in order to compete favorably in the market."
About Type 2 Diabetes
Type 2 diabetes, one of the greatest threats to public health in the 21st century, is a leading cause of blindness, non-traumatic amputations, end-stage renal disease, and cardiovascular disease-stroke and heart attacks. For 2007, the direct costs related to diabetes care in the United States are estimated to be $103 billion.
About Decision Resources
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SOURCE: Decision Resources
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