Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Novartis/Servier's antidepressant Valdoxan/Thymanax will achieve blockbuster status following its launch in the United States and Europe, achieving peak-year sales of $1.5 billion.
The new Pharmacor report Outlook for Antidepressants, 2006-2016: Will Novel Agents Surprise the Market? finds that the melatonin agonist Valdoxan/Thymanax will experience rapid uptake as a first-line treatment in the primary care setting, following its launch in 2010. The report finds that, unlike other later-stage novel antidepressants, melatonin agonists do not have a history of tolerability issues and physicians have indicated acceptance of this class in adjunctive therapy in treating patients who also have difficulty sleeping.
The report also finds that incremental growth in the already large patient population of people suffering from anxiety and depression will continue to drive the uptake of all antidepressants, including novel agents, in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
"Growth in the prevalent population in the U.S., where drug prices are highest, will provide particularly strong support for the overall market," said Kate Hohenberg, principal area director at Decision Resources. "We estimate that the prevalence of anxiety, depression, or a combination of both in the major markets ranges from 7% to 22%, with the U.S. among the highest at 21%. We forecast that prevalence figures in the U.S. will grow to 29% of the population in 2016."
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