Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the highly anticipated launch of the first oral agents formally approved for multiple sclerosis will drive market growth as these therapies, combined, will garner 25 percent market share in 2017.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Multiple Sclerosis estimates that Novartis/Mitsubishi Tanabe's oral agent, FTY-720 (fingolimod) will capture nearly $900 million by 2017 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan, representing the greatest market share of any emerging multiple sclerosis therapy over the next decade. The report finds that, despite limited patient share, sales of FTY-720 will be driven by its improved efficacy, acceptable safety profile, and added convenience. The launch of nine emerging therapies-including five oral drugs-will drive moderate four percent annual growth through 2017 in the multiple sclerosis drug market. Rapid uptake of premium-priced oral drugs and the growing use of monoclonal antibodies, particularly in the United States, will spark this growth.
The report also finds that other strong contenders in the multiple sclerosis market over the next 10 years will include Merck Serono's oral cladribine (Mylinax), BioMS Medical/Eli Lilly's MBP-8298, and alemtuzumab, which is marketed in the U.S. as Campath for B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia by Bayer HealthCare and Genzyme Oncology. Oral cladribine's first-to- market status among emerging oral agents, MBP-8298's approval for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and alemtuzumab's impressive efficacy will drive major-market peak-year sales for each drug to the range of $500 million to $1 billion.
"Oral cladribine, which will launch in 2010 and be the first emerging oral agent to market, will experience considerable initial uptake," said Bethany Kiernan, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "In contrast, while alemtuzumab's efficacy and its convenient once-yearly dosing have impressed interviewed experts, possible safety risks could limit its uptake. Additionally, MBP-8298, which will be approved for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, will provide a much-needed therapeutic option for this niche population."
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