Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Amgen's novel agent denosumab and Eli Lilly's parathyroid hormone (PTH) analogue Forteo/Forsteo (teriparatide) will drive robust 4.3 percent annual growth in the osteoporosis drug market from 2013 to 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Osteoporosis finds that concerns about the long-term safety of bisphosphonates -- which currently dominate the market -- will help convince primary care physicians and specialists to switch patients to PTH analogues and novel agents such as denosumab. The uptake of denosumab, which has a convenient dosage regimen of bi-annual subcutaneous injections, will drive the agent to achieve blockbuster sales of $2 billion in 2018 for the treatment of osteoporosis and osteopenia. The report also forecasts that Forteo/Forsteo will achieve blockbuster status in 2018 with sales of approximately $2 billion. Forteo/Forsteo's uptake will be achieved as a result of its efficacy in reducing the frequency of fractures as well as the prevalent safety concerns about the bisphosphonates.
The report also finds that that the launches of third-generation selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), most notably Eli Lilly's arzoxifene, will drive market growth. Physicians will increasingly prescribe these agents, particularly if they demonstrate significant efficacy in reducing nonvertebral fractures.
"Interviewed experts indicate that arzoxifene is the most promising of the third-generation SERMs, as they believe it may be as efficacious as Pfizer's Fablyn without increasing mortality," said Decision Resources Analyst Jeremy Goldman, M.D. "If Phase III clinical trial data confirms this, we forecast that arzoxifene will become the market-leading SERM, generating sales of $600 million in 2018."
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