Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Elan/Wyeth's bapineuzumab, the first biologic agent for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, will drive the Alzheimer's disease drug market to more than triple by 2016, reaching $8.8 billion.
According to the new Pharmacor report Alzheimer's Disease, bapineuzumab -- a monoclonal antibody that is poised to begin Phase III trials and is expected to launch by 2011 in the United States and Europe -- will account for more than $5 billion in sales in 2016. A second monoclonal antibody, Eli Lilly's LY-2062430, may also launch by 2016 and contribute to market expansion.
The report finds that bapineuzumab, Neurochem's Alzhemed, and Myriad Genetics' Flurizan -- three disease-modifying therapies that will launch over the next several years -- will account for 82% of Alzheimer's disease drug sales in 2016. Bapineuzumab will garner 61% of sales, while Alzhemed and Flurizan will garner 13% and 8%, respectively. However, the report finds that significant safety concerns may limit the overall sales potential of bapineuzumab.
"The launch of bapineuzumab will be the most important factor driving growth in the Alzheimer's disease drug market," said Nitasha Manchanda, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "Despite being priced considerably lower than monoclonal antibodies in other markets, we expect bapineuzumab to enter the market priced nearly eightfold higher than current small molecule therapies. Nevertheless, we anticipate significant uptake of this agent -- particularly in patients with mild Alzheimer's disease -- despite the safety concerns. Alzhemed and Flurizan, both in Phase III development, have shown modest efficacy in trials to date and are likely to offer a better safety profile than bapineuzumab."
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