Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that generic erosion of several established branded atypical antipsychotics will cause the schizophrenia drug market to decrease from $6.3 billion in 2008 to $5.2 billion in 2013 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Schizophrenia finds that the patent expiries of Janssen's Risperdal Consta and Invega, AstraZeneca's Seroquel, Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka Pharmaceutical's Abilify, Eli Lilly's Zyprexa and Pfizer's Geodon/Zeldox will be the key factors driving a 20 percent decrease in the overall schizophrenia drug market. However, as a result of the uptake of emerging therapies -- primarily depot formulations -- the market will increase modestly from $5.2 billion in 2013 to $5.6 billion in 2018.
The launch of new depot formulations of atypical antipsychotics will partially offset the decline in the schizophrenia market and will offer more-convenient treatment options for patients. Janssen's depot formulation of Invega, Invega Sustenna, will experience the greatest market success of all depot formulations, with peak-year major-market sales in excess of $500 million.
"Depot formulations such as Invega Sustenna will offer advantages in dosing and administration compared with the only marketed atypical depot formulation -- Janssen's Risperdal Consta," said Decision Resources Analyst Sandra Chow, M.Sc. "Emerging depot formulations will command premium pricing and, in 2018, will account for nearly one-third of the overall schizophrenia drug market."
Interviewed experts indicate that because most current antipsychotics function through similar mechanisms of action and are not completely effective in all patients, the development of therapies with novel mechanisms of action remains a key unmet need in schizophrenia treatment. Eli Lilly's LY-2140023 will be the first agent with a novel mechanism of action to reach the market, launching in 2013 in the United States and in 2014 in Europe. The report finds that LY-2140023, which will be largely used in conjunction with currently available agents, will provide physicians with an effective new treatment option for patients inadequately controlled on other antipsychotic regimens.
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