BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that Medivation/Astellas Pharma's Xtandi will be the sales-leading agent across the world's major markets for prostate cancer, garnering $3.4 billion in 2023. Growth in sales will be driven primarily by Xtandi's uptake as a first-line treatment of chemotherapy-naive metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC)—a setting in which it will compete directly with the first-to-market novel hormonal agent Zytiga (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Biotech/Janssen-Cilag/AstraZeneca). In addition, the anticipated line extension of Xtandi for the untapped nonmetastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) setting will contribute to nearly one third of its major-market sales in 2023 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Prostate Cancer:
- The overall prostate cancer market will more than double in size: Major-market sales of prostate cancer drug therapies will grow from $4.4 billion in 2013 to $9.3 billion in 2023, driven by continued uptake and line extensions of Xtandi, uptake of Bayer HealthCare's Xofigo, and the expected launch of three high-priced emerging therapies.
- New market entrants for nmCRPC: Two novel androgen receptor inhibitors, Johnson & Johnson's ARN-509 and Orion/Bayer HealthCare's ODM-201, are expected to enter the underserved nmCRPC setting, after Xtandi. Taken together, ARN-509 and ODM-201 will capture combined sales of $1.4 billion in 2023 across the major markets.
- Anticipated erosion of Zytiga's sales: Zytiga was the sales-leading prostate cancer agent in 2013 across the major markets. However, the anticipated entry of less costly generic versions of the agent during the forecast period will erode Zytiga's sales in the United States and Europe. As a result, major-market sales of branded Zytiga will fall to less than $600 million in 2023.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Senior Business Insights Analyst Khurram Nawaz, M.Sc.:
- "Now that the mCRPC segment is crowded, drug developers are increasingly shifting their focus on the untapped and potentially lucrative nmCRPC segment. The lack of therapies specifically approved for nmCRPC opens doors for new agents that can demonstrate clinically significant outcomes in delaying metastatic progression."
- "Several unmet needs remain unaddressed in prostate cancer, most urgently the lack of clarity on how to sequence recently approved agents in clinical practice. Interviewed experts also cite the need to prevent or delay development of castrate-resistant disease and metastatic disease as important unmet needs."
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