Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launch of targeted agents as well as increased use of existing agents in the maintenance setting will drive the non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) drug market to nearly triple from $3.5 billion in 2008 to almost $10 billion in 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer finds that, through 2013, market growth will be driven by the launch of targeted agents such as Pfizer's figitumumab as a first-line treatment for advanced NSCLC as well as the emergence of AstraZeneca's Zactima, Bayer/Onyx's Nexavar and Boehringer Ingelheim's Tovok as second-line and subsequent-line options. Additionally, from 2013 to 2018, Roche/Chugai's Avastin -- which is already approved in the first-line setting for advanced disease -- and GlaxoSmithKline's MAGE-A3 will be approved as much-needed options in the adjuvant setting for NSCLC.
The market will be further driven by increased use of maintenance therapy involving premium-priced agents such as Eli Lilly's Alimta, OSI/Roche/Chugai's Tarceva, Avastin and figitumumab through 2018, according to the report. Although maintenance treatment has not been used to a high degree in NSCLC to date, recent Phase III clinical trial results indicate that there is a place for this practice in the treatment of advanced disease.
Owing to sales of Eli Lilly's Alimta and Gemzar, Roche/Chugai's Avastin and OSI/Roche/Chugai's Tarceva, Eli Lilly and Roche dominated the NSCLC landscape in 2008 as each company held approximately one-third of the overall market. By 2018, however, Eli Lilly's share will drop below 16 percent as a result of generic erosion of Alimta and Gemzar, while increased uptake of Avastin and Tarceva will enable Roche to retain 29 percent of overall market share. Additionally, owing to the uptake of figitumumab, Pfizer will hold 23 percent of the overall NSCLC market in 2018.
"Despite the anticipated sales growth of the non-small-cell lung cancer therapy market, treatment will continue to be defined by only modest improvements in overall survival and response rate and the disease will continue to be characterized by substantial unmet needs," said Decision Resources Analyst Janie Mackay, Ph.D. "Opportunity remains for the development of an agent that provides a significant improvement in efficacy over current and emerging therapies, particularly in the early stages of non-small-cell lung cancer."
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