Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Roche/Aspreva's CellCept and Biogen Idec/Genentech/Zenyaku Kogyo/Roche's Rituxan/MabThera will emerge as the leading therapies for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus, driving the market to more than quadruple, from $300 million in 2005 to $1.3 billion in 2015.
The new Pharmacor report Systemic Lupus Erythematosus finds that although corticosteroids and antimalarials will continue to be used as mainstay treatments for the disease, their major-market sales will be dwarfed by the increased use and resulting sales of novel agents including CellCept and high-priced biologics including Rituxan/MabThera and Human Genome Science/GlaxoSmithKline's LymphoStat-B. Although these drugs will dominate the market in the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom, patent expiries and generic erosion will slow sales of some of these agents in the second half of the 2005-2015 study period.
"The entry and increased uptake of branded drugs in an otherwise largely generic market will be a principal driver of robust growth," said Dancella Fernandes, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "The uptake of biological agents is driven mainly by their ability to offer treatment options for patients who are refractory to current therapies. However, with major-market patent expiries of CellCept and Rituxan/MabThera between 2009 and 2013, we forecast that sales of both drugs will decline by 2015, the end of our study period, as a result of generic or biogeneric erosion."
About Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
Systemic lupus erythematosus is a complex disease with multiple organ involvement. Drug development has been hampered by a number of factors including the complex underlying pathophysiology of the disease and a relatively small market in comparison to other immune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis.
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