BURLINGTON, Mass., Dec. 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the launch of novel biologic therapies targeting nerve growth factor (NGF) or, to a lesser extent, the calcitonin gene-related (CGRP) pathway will be the main drivers of growth in the chronic pain market following these agents' launch beginning in 2018 across the major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan). Although these agents will be used largely in later lines of therapy and encounter notable market access hurdles, their expected high prices and the sizeable prevalence of the populations in which they will be used will drive combined major-market sales of nearly $10 billion in 2024.
Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled "Chronic Pain":
- Together, anti-NGF therapies from Pfizer/Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson/Takeda, and Regeneron/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma will account for more than one-fifth of major-market chronic pain sales in 2024, rivaling the market shares of drug classes that currently dominate the space: opioid analgesics and NSAIDs.
- Monoclonal antibodies targeting the CGRP pathway represent a novel approach to the preventive treatment of migraine and/or cluster headache. Despite interviewed experts' interest in the potential of this mechanism of action, none of the four agents in late-stage development—from Alder Biopharmaceuticals, Amgen/Novartis, Eli Lilly, and Teva—has yet to clearly differentiate itself from its competitors. Nevertheless, we expect that sales of this class will reach nearly 10 percent of the total chronic pain market in 2024.
- Commercial opportunity remains for opioid analgesics with lower risk of abuse and/or dependence. Multiple efforts to curb prescription opioid abuse are now in place, spurring development of abuse-deterrent formulations (ADFs) of long-acting strong opioids; several such products are currently available and several more are poised to launch in the U.S. market by 2024.
- Arthritic pain and chronic low back pain are the leading segments of the chronic pain market and will continue to dominate the space through 2024 due to the increasing prevalence of these populations—a result of population aging and rising obesity rates—as well as the launch of the anti-NGF therapies, which will see most of their use in these populations.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Senior Director Bethany Kiernan, Ph.D.:
- "We expect the anti-NGF monoclonal antibodies will be the most commercially successful novel drug class for the treatment of chronic pain. Despite safety risks that will constrain these therapies' patient share, impressive efficacy demonstrated to date, anticipated premium pricing, and large target populations for these agents—namely, osteoarthritic pain and chronic low back pain—will translate into blockbuster major-market sales within the next ten years."
- "Multiple premium-priced ADFs of long-acting opioid analgesics are available in the United States, with several more in late-stage development. We expect that public and political pressure in the United States will eventually drive a switch of all traditional Schedule II long-acting opioids from forms with no abuse-deterrent properties to all ADF forms, which will dampen the erosion of sales in the opioid analgesic drug class through 2024."
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SOURCE Decision Resources Group