Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the market for HIV therapies will experience robust 5.4 percent annual growth through 2012, driven by the use of premium-priced branded products. However, owing to the generic erosion of several key antiretroviral drugs, market growth will slow to less than 1 percent from 2012 to 2017 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled HIV finds that the increasing use of Bristol-Myers Squibb/Gilead's Atripla, Gilead/Japan Tobacco's Truvada and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Reyataz in early lines of therapy, coupled with continuing uptake of Johnson & Johnson's Prezista, Merck's Isentress and Pfizer's Selzentry in highly treatment-experienced patients will fuel the near-term growth in the HIV market. The use of Prezista and Isentress is expected to increase once their labels expand to include treatment initiation in asymptomatic patients.
Based on the drug's efficacy and safety profile demonstrated in clinical trials to date, interviewed thought leaders perceive Johnson & Johnson's rilpivirine as the most promising HIV agent in late stages of development, according to the report. Additionally, new market entrants from Merck and Pfizer from the integrase inhibitors and CCR5 antagonist classes, respectively, are providing highly treatment-experienced patients with greatly needed additional therapeutic options.
"The increasingly wider use of premium-priced marketed products such as Atripla, Truvada, and Reyataz in early lines of therapy will be the major growth driver of the HIV market over the next decade," said Sylvia Eash, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "These antiretroviral agents will continue to be dominate players in this market with forecasted sales, combined, of more than $5 billion in 2017."
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