Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Novartis's MenB and Wyeth's PCV13 are the most promising vaccines currently in the pipeline as the combined peak-year sales for these two vaccines could exceed $4 billion by 2022.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Emerging Vaccines forecasts that peak-year sales of MenB and PCV13 will each be $2 to $2.5 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. When launched, MenB will be the first vaccine for the prevention of meningococcal disease caused by N. meningitidis serogroup B, which is a significant cause of meningitis in developed countries. PCV13 will offer protection against almost twice the number of serotypes covered by Wyeth's current pneumococcal vaccine, Prevnar.
The report examines emerging and novel vaccine sectors that can potentially represent the future drivers of the vaccine market. Among established markets, pneumococcal and meningococcal diseases as well as human papillomavirus (HPV), represent the highest-value vaccine sectors over the next 15 years, according to the report.
"The recent commercial success of two blockbuster vaccines--Wyeth's Prevnar, a pneumococcal vaccine for children, and Merck's Gardasil, an HPV vaccine for adolescent girls--has stirred public interest in vaccines," said Hemali Patel, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "These two agents serve as prime examples of how vaccine development programs can raise public awareness about the diseases against which the vaccines offer protection, as well as how these vaccine programs can achieve significant coverage in targeted populations."
Among the emerging markets examined, respiratory syncytial virus and cytomegalovirus are the most important emerging opportunities for vaccines, with each market potentially worth more than $2 billion in peak-year major-market sales, according to the report.
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