Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launch and uptake of nine emerging therapies will drive the prostate cancer drug market to more than double from nearly $4 billion in 2009 to $8.4 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Prostate Cancer reveal that sales of emerging therapies, most notably Dendreon's Provenge, will account for approximately 57 percent of the total prostate cancer market in 2019. In addition to Provenge, market growth will be driven by the uptake of Sanofi-Aventis's Jevtana, AstraZeneca's zibotentan, Johnson & Johnson's abiraterone, Amgen/GlaxoSmithKline/Daiichi Sankyo's Prolia, Medivation/Astellas Pharma's MDV-3100, Algeta/Bayer Schering Pharma's Alpharadin, Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sprycel and Celgene's Revlimid.
"Among the emerging therapies, Provenge--which gained approval in the U.S. earlier this year for asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer--will have the most significant market impact," said Decision Resources Analyst Andrew Merron, Ph.D. "Provenge is the only emerging therapy that we are forecasting to achieve blockbuster status through 2019. However, several other agents will earn sales in excess of $500 million as the market will become crowded and highly competitive over the next decade."
The Pharmacor 2010 findings reveal that the high sales of the emerging therapies are due to the expectation that these agents can improve overall survival in the castrate-resistant metastatic setting, an achievement attained only by Provenge, Jevtana and Sanofi-Aventis's Taxotere. Several agents in early-stage development that had previously appeared promising in improving overall survival have failed in Phase III clinical trials, highlighting the challenge of this achievement.
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