Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is the presence of a thrombus or clot, composed primarily of platelets and fibrin, within a deep vein. Pulmonary embolism (PE), a direct complication of DVT, is a thrombus, or clot, typically formed in the deep veins, that has traveled to and obstructed the arteries of the lung, often causing sudden death.

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Deep Vein Thrombosis/Pulmonary Embolism is a new Decision Resources study that describes in detail the risk factors associated with these conditions and presents estimates of population sizes, including patients experiencing acute events and populations eligible for prophylaxis, by country, in the seven major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan). We review current diagnostics and therapeutics, outline country-specific medical practice, and discuss emerging therapies, including an assessment of their potential impact on medical practice and the commercial market. The study culminates in a ten-year (1999-2009) market forecast for sales of therapies to treat and prevent DVT/PE.

Of the agents in late-stage development for DVT/PE, we believe the most promising are AstraZeneca's H37695, an oral direct thrombin inhibitor, and Organon/Sanofi-Synthelabo's fondaparin, a heparinoid with anti-factor-Xa activity. Physicians interviewed express great hopes that H37695 will provide consistent anticoagulation without the need for monitoring, but they also voice concerns that the irreversibility of the thrombin inhibitors may lead to bleeding complications in especially bloody surgeries. We anticipate orthopedic surgeries will be the primary target market for this drug, leading to peak-year DVT/PE sales of $250-500 million. Physicians also hold fondaparin in high regard because they are familiar with its mode of action and believe it to be more effective than low-molecular-weight heparins. Peak-year DVT/PE sales for this agent will reach $250 million.

The early-stage compounds of highest interest to physicians are the factor Xa antagonists. Experts believe that because these agents act farther up the coagulation pathway, they will have a more profound effect on preventing coagulation than will other drugs that target components such as thrombin, which is near the end of the pathway. For the lead agents in this class- Sanofi-Synthelabo's SR 34006 and Daiichi's DX9065a-we expect peak-year sales of $50-100 million each.

Overall, we anticipate steady growth of 4.5% per year for sales of products to treat and prevent DVT/PE, from 1999 levels of $614 million to $951 million in 2009. Although novel agents will be entering the market at premium prices, the patent expiry of several LMWHs will moderate the sales potential of the overall market. The prevention market will account for more than 70% of total sales throughout the forecast period.

Deep Vein Thrombosis/Pulmonary Embolism is part of Cardium, a multiclient service that evaluates the commercial potential of cardiac drugs in research and development.

Contact: Frank Sama, 781.487.3753 (telephone), 781.487.5750 (fax), or sama@dresources.com (e-mail). In Europe, contact Ms. Francoise Bidart, +32.2.351.4082 (telephone), +32.2.351.2347 (fax), or fbidart@compuserve.com (e-mail). In Japan, contact Ms. Makiko Yoshimoto, +81.3.5401.2615 (telephone), +81.3.5401.2617 (fax), or makiko@bl.mmtr.or.jp (e-mail). http://www.dresources.com

Decision Resources, Inc., is a world leader in research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Founded as a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the company has provided strategic information services for 30 years, assessing industry trends in the international health care and pharmaceutical industries. Drawing on an international network of experts, Decision Resources offers its clients the most comprehensive analyses of therapy markets available.

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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.

Contact: Frank Sama of Decision Resources, Inc., 781-487-3753,
sama@dresources.com

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