Decision Resources, Inc., has just published a new study titled Influenza A and B. The primary cause of clinical influenza-the influenza A and B viruses-are highly infectious particles that can rapidly disseminate in a population. Because of influenza's unpredictability, its historical toll on human life, and its potential for causing high morbidity and mortality, this disease merits increased interest from both health care systems and drug development companies.
Of the therapies in development, the most promising are several emerging vaccines, including Aviron/Wyeth-Lederle's intranasal, live-attenuated vaccine, Flumist, Chiron's adjuvanted vaccine, Fluad; Aventis Pasteur's recombinant neuraminidase (NA)-enhanced vaccine, Fluzone + baculovirus derived rNA; and Berna's virosomal vaccines, Nasalflu Berna and Inflexal Berna. In addition, a promising new NA inhibitor, Ortho-McNeil/R.W. Johnson Pharmaceuticals' RWJ-270201, is in Phase II/III trials. Thought leaders interviewed for this study say these novel vaccines promise the advantages of improved effectiveness and easier administration, while RWJ-270201 offers once-daily administration and an improved side-effect profile.
Sales of influenza vaccines in the major markets topped $550 million in 1999. We expect sales to exceed $1 billion in 2009, reflecting annual growth of 7%. We estimate that sales of antivirals in the major pharmaceutical markets will exceed $166 million in 2009, with greater growth during the 1999- 2004 segment (estimated at more than 10% per year), driven mainly by increased utilization of the NA inhibitors. The highest absolute growth in sales will occur in the United States, where there has generally been a higher uptake of antiviral therapy for influenza. Growth in all the markets will be fueled by the following factors:
-- Wider recognition among physicians of the utility of the available vaccines and antiviral agents. -- Increased patient awareness of the importance of seeking treatment early, when NA inhibitors are effective. -- Increased patient consumption of influenza vaccines and antivirals.
Influenza A and B is part of Infectious Disease, one of six Pharmacor services that evaluate the commercial potential of drugs in research and development.
Decision Resources, Inc., is a world leader in research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Founded as a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the company has provided strategic information services for 30 years, assessing industry trends in the international health care and pharmaceutical industries.
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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.
Contact: Frank Sama of Decision Resources, Inc., 781-296-2553,