BURLINGTON, Mass., July 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the hepatitis C virus (HCV) population is large with more than 2 million diagnosed, chronically infected cases throughout the G7 markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan). Many of these patients, including more than 270,000 with clinically significant Metavir F4 fibrosis of the liver, have refused treatment with or are ineligible for older therapies reliant on regular interferon-alpha injections. These patients will soon have access to numerous HCV-specific, direct-acting antivirals, such as Gilead's nucleotide polymerase inhibitor Sovaldi, Johnson & Johnson's Olysio, Bristol-Myers Squibb's Daklinza and AbbVie's ABT-450-based interferon-free combination. The entry of these highly effective, very well-tolerated combinations will dramatically increase the size of the drug-treated population in the G7 markets from less than 130,000 patients in 2013 to more than 470,000 patients in 2016.
Other key aspects of the Hepatitis C Virus Patient Flow Model - 2014:
- A highly granular and transparent framework for forecasting patient population dynamics during the 2011-2028 period segmented according to patient's treatment history, infecting HCV genotype and liver fibrosis. This report combines Decision Resources Group's epidemiological modeling, while utilizing primary survey data from 100 HCV-treating gastroenterologists and hepatologists and insights from in-depth interviews with HCV thought leading physicians.
- This interactive model allows users to track changing disease populations on an annualized basis, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within patient subpopulations.
- This flexible forecasting tool allows users to input their own assumptions regarding rate of new chronic cases, newly diagnosed cases, treatment rates, sustained virological responses and HCV genotype distribution.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Seamus Levine-Wilkinson, Ph.D.:
- "Hepatitis C experts agree that the widespread availability of new, interferon-free therapies will increase diagnosis among non-cirrhotic patients due to expanded screening programs and marketing of new drugs."
- "Unsurprisingly, surveyed and interviewed experts anticipate that they will treat most HCV patients with IFN-free therapies within one to five years of launch, irrespective of HCV genotype and liver disease. These responses stem from physicians' recognition that a large number of highly effective, safe, and well-tolerated all-oral/IFN-free regimens will reach the market beginning with the late 2013 launch of sofosbuvir. After 2016, the drug-treated population will gradually decline to approximately 200,000 cases in 2028 as previously diagnosed 'warehoused' patients are treated and cured."
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