Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that although sales of emerging therapies will partially offset losses to generic competitors, the migraine drug market will decline from $4.7 billion in 2008 to $3.4 billion in 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Migraine finds that generic erosion of top-selling triptans such as GlaxoSmithKline's Imitrex/Imigran, prescribed for the acute treatment of migraine attacks, and Ortho-McNeil/Janssen-Cilag's anti-epileptic drug Topamax, used for migraine prophylaxis, will constrain the overall migraine market during the next decade and will exert increasing pressure on new products. However, the emergence of Merck's first-in-class calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor antagonist telcagepant as an alternative to triptan therapy will help counteract market losses -- according to the report, telcagepant will garner sales of $1.3 billion in 2018 in the world's major markets.
"Despite a delay in regulatory filing, we forecast that telcagepant will launch for the acute treatment of migraine in 2011 and will achieve blockbuster status, thanks to the drug's triptan-level efficacy, lack of cardiovascular risks, novel mechanism of action and strong marketing support," said Decision Resources Senior Analyst Jonathan Searles. "If the long-term safety of the drug is confirmed, telcagepant will offer a useful alternative for patients in whom the triptans are contraindicated as well as some patients who are refractory to, dissatisfied with or intolerant of triptan treatment. Moreover, we expect that some clinicians, including those who may still avoid triptans because of lingering safety concerns, will adopt telcagepant as an early choice among migraine-specific agents when first-line non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and analgesics are insufficient."
The report also finds that two innovative reformulations of approved agents, Zogenix/Astellas Pharma's needle-free Sumavel DosePro and MAP Pharmaceuticals' inhaled Levadex will offer new non-invasive treatments. The report forecasts that these products will earn approximately $500 million combined by 2018. However, high cost, reimbursement challenges and patient preference for oral treatment are expected to limit the use of these unique drug-device combinations to a small minority of migraine patients.
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