BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 2, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the chronic heart failure (CHF) market will grow from approximately $2.9 billion in 2013 to $8.9 billion in 2023. Growth in the CHF market will largely be driven by the launch of Novartis's LCZ-696. LCZ-696, a first-in-class dual angiotensin II receptor antagonist (AIIRA)/neprilysin inhibitor, is set to first launch in H2 2015 and could add nearly $4 billion annual sales to the CHF market in 2023. LCZ-696 has the potential to revolutionize the CHF treatment paradigm by seeking to displace well-established first-line therapies, namely angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and AIIRAs. However, LCZ-696 will face a number of hurdles in its uptake, the biggest of which may be its expected high price in comparison to generically available CHF agents.
Other key findings from the Pharmacor advisory service entitled Heart Failure:
- Novel launches for acute heart failure: Two novel biologic vasodilators will launch in the acute heart failure (AHF) market. Novartis's serelaxin and Cardiorentis's ularitide could contribute more than $2.6 billion to the AHF market in 2023.
- Other launches for CHF: A variety of therapies, boasting an eclectic mix of mechanisms of action, will also launch for CHF during the 10-year forecast period. These therapies include Novartis' aliskiren (Tekturna/Rasilez), Bayer's finerenone (BAY-94-8862), Teva/Mesoblast's CEP-41750, Celladon's Mydicar and Bayer's rivaroxaban (Xarelto). Collectively, these agents could contribute sales of nearly $2 billion across the seven major markets in 2023.
- Ivabradine (Servier's Procoralan): With commercialization agreements now in place with Amgen and Ono Pharmaceutical to develop and market ivabradine in the United States and Japan, respectively, we expect ivabradine to become commercially available in these two markets during the forecast period.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Joseph Dwyer, Ph.D.:
- "LCZ-696 has demonstrated the potential to disrupt the well-established CHF treatment algorithm following favorable results from the PARADIGM-HF study. This exciting new agent represents a step up from past and present agents in development for CHF in that it could replace the standard of care for many CHF patients."
- "Previous R&D efforts in the AHF segment have been plagued by high attrition rates. This has resulted in a highly genericized market in which no new therapies have launched since 2002. Serelaxin and ularitide are poised to fulfill a number of unmet needs in AHF and have the potential to greatly expand this market."
Upcoming analyst call:
- Decision Resources Group will present an analyst call based on this report on October 8, 2014 entitled How to Replace an ACE? LCZ-696 Demonstrates Blockbuster Potential in Phase III PARADIGM-HF Trial. For more information, please contact Christopher Comfort at email@example.com.
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