BURLINGTON, Mass., Sept. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the continued uptake of key agents such as Merck's Januvia, Eli Lilly/Amylin/Alkermes' Bydureon and Amylin/Eli Lilly's Byetta will drive the type 2 diabetes drug market to nearly double from $19 billion in 2009 to $36 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Type 2 Diabetes reveal that agents from the incretin mimetics drug class—dipeptidyl peptidase-IV (DPP-IV) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogues—are the most promising drug classes because they improve upon key areas of safety and efficacy. DPP-IV inhibitors such as Januvia have a very low risk of hypoglycemia and an excellent tolerability profile, making them suitable for widespread use. GLP-1 analogues such as Bydureon and Byetta combine superior glucose-lowering and weight-loss capabilities and are particularly useful for the significant proportion of type 2 diabetics who are obese. Among all drug classes, DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues will experience the largest upturn in market share, increasing from 12 percent in 2009 to 30 percent in 2019.
"Januvia dominates the DPP-IV inhibitor class and will consolidate its leading position while other DPP-IV inhibitors will struggle, owing to their lack of clinical advantages over Januvia," said Decision Resources Analyst Yannick Maneuf, Ph.D. "GLP-1 analogues have a strong efficacy profile, they elicit weight loss and also have limited safety liabilities and—despite requiring an injection—GLP-1 analogues enjoy great popularity among thought leaders, who see improved glycemia and weight loss in obese type 2 diabetics as landmark progress."
Bydureon, a once-weekly therapy, will earn the most sales in the GLP-1 analogue class, based on its convenience and efficacy. Bydureon and Novo Nordisk's once-daily Victoza will also benefit as a result of the failure of Roche/Ipsen/Teijin/Chugai's taspoglutide, which was the second-most-advanced contender among the long-acting GLP-1 analogues.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that although an advisory committee of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently agreed to keep GlaxoSmithKline's PPAR-gamma agonist Avandia on the market, the drug will continue to lose sales through 2019 to its main competitor from the same drug class, Takeda's Actos.
About Pharmacor 2010
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SOURCE Decision Resources