BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, over the next decade, the epilepsy drug market will remain relatively flat, increasing from $2.8 billion in 2009 to $2.9 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Epilepsy forecast a decline in overall sales through 2014 due to generic erosion, specifically within the second-generation antiepileptic drug (AED) class, which will lose approximately $400 million by 2014. Generic erosion within the epilepsy market remains relatively conservative but several popular second-generation AEDs will contend with strong generic competition over the next several years. Nevertheless, the market will recover as a result of uptake of both currently-marketed and emerging higher-priced third-generation AEDs.
"Through 2019, the majority of AEDs will be generically available, creating negative pressure on market growth," said Decision Resources Analyst Nadja Rozovsky, Ph.D. "However, emerging agents, combined with greater uptake of the already-available and mostly branded third-generation AEDs, will temper the impact of generic AEDs, and the market will recover by 2019."
The findings reveal that levetiracetam (UCB's Keppra/Keppra XR, generics) is the current market leader in epilepsy. Driven by its preferred use as both a first-line adjunctive therapy and increasingly as first-line monotherapy, levetiracetam will continue to lead the market in 2019 with approximately $540 million in major-market sales.
The continued uptake of current third-generation AEDs—particularly UCB's Vimpat and Sunovion/Bial/Eisai's Zebinix—and uptake of the emerging AEDs UCB's Rikelta, Valeant/GlaxoSmithKline's Potiga and Eisai's perampanel will offer alternative therapeutic options as adjunctive agents, according to the findings. Because these drugs will be used in later lines of adjunctive treatment and compete with established AEDs, however, they will experience only moderate uptake and earn modest sales.
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