In 1999, osteoporosis affected more than 35 million people in the world's seven major pharmaceutical markets (the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Japan) and is now considered by the World Health Organization to be second only to cardiovascular disease as a leading health care problem. Osteoporosis is a new study from Decision Resources, Inc., that evaluates the considerable market opportunity awaiting emerging drugs to treat this highly prevalent condition.
We estimate that sales of osteoporosis drugs in the major pharmaceutical markets totaled $2.8 billion in 1999. The bisphosphonate (BP) class, which includes alendronate and etidronate, captured 31% of the market; the SERM raloxifene garnered 10% of the market; and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and calcitonin products held 18% and 20% market shares, respectively. We estimate that in 2009, major-market sales for osteoporosis therapies have more than tripled, reaching $9.3 billion, growing 13% annually. Several factors will drive this growth:
--A significant increase in the number of elderly people worldwide. --An expansion in the proportion of people who receive bone densitometry scans, and new selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), next- generation BPs, and bone-formation agents (e.g., parathyroid hormome [PTH]), will expand the diagnosed and drug-treated populations. --Clinical studies suggest that highly effective BPs with improved side- effect profiles (e.g., risedronate [Procter & Gamble's Actonel]) will contribute to physicians' growing demand for this class of antiresorptives in the near future. BPs have become the mainstay of osteoporosis therapy and are poised to dominate the market during our ten-year forecast period. In addition, clinical trials are studying BPs combined with other therapies (e.g., HRT, a SERM, or PTH) and are expected to provide important guidelines for specialists seeking more- optimal treatment regimens for osteoporosis. Some specialists predict that up to 35-80% of patients will receive these combination regimens during the next five to ten years, making them a significant contributor to the growing osteoporosis market. --Bone anabolic agents (NPS Pharmaceuticals' ALX1-11 PTH analogue; Eli Lilly's Forteo) will be a welcome addition to the osteoporosis treatment arsenal. We estimate that sales of PTH will grow dramatically (28% per year) between 2004 and 2009.
Osteoporosis is part of Mosaic, one of six Pharmacor services that evaluate the commercial potential of drugs in research and development.
Decision Resources, Inc., is a world leader in pharmaceutical research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Founded as a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the company has provided strategic information services for 30 years.
Contact: Frank Sama, 781.296.2553 (telephone), 781.296.2550 (fax), or firstname.lastname@example.org (e-mail). In Europe, contact Francoise Bidart, +32.2.351.4082 (telephone), +32.2.351.2347 (fax), or email@example.com (e-mail). In Japan, contact Makiko Yoshimoto, +81.3.5401.2615 (telephone), +81.3.5401.2617 (fax), or firstname.lastname@example.org (e-mail). http://www.dresources.com
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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.
Contact: Frank Sama of Decision Resources, Inc., 781-296-2553,