Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that sales of antidepressants will experience modest 4% annual growth over the 2006-2016 study period as patent expiries and the introduction of novel agents erode the sales of market-leading drugs.
The new Pharmacor report Outlook for Antidepressants, 2006-2016: Will Novel Agents Surprise the Market? finds that the patent expiries of market- leading drugs in the monoaminergic class - including Pfizer's Zoloft, GlaxoSmithKline's Wellbutrin, Forest/Lundbeck's Lexapro, and Wyeth's Effexor - will play a key role in constraining market growth between 2010 and 2016 in the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, the arrival of next-generation monoaminergic drugs, including that of the triple reuptake inhibitors (TKIs) in 2010, will not sustain the market's value and will not meet the need for more effective agents for the treatment depression and anxiety.
According to the report, the arrival of four classes of novel non- monoaminergic agents, including drugs from GlaxoSmithKline and Servier/Novartis, will account for approximately 30% of sales in 2016. GlaxoSmithKline's paroxetine/vestipitant and Servier/Novartis's melatonin agonist agomelatine will be the only non-monoaminergic drugs to compete for first-line use in primary care and will be used as adjuncts to monoaminergic antidepressants in refractory patients and other subgroups.
"The opportunity for non-monoaminergic antidepressants lies in their ability to address critical shortcomings that have persisted through four generations of monoaminergic antidepressants-limited efficacy, slow onset of therapeutic action, and sexual side effects," said Kate Hohenberg, principal area director at Decision Resources. "Of the nine agents that have reached clinical trials, those we identify with commercial promise include paroxetine/vestipitant and the melatonin agonist agomelatine. However, none of these drugs will reach the $3-$4 billion major-market sales level that has been achieved by many of the current market-leading monoaminergic agents."
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