After enjoying several years recognized as an important growing global economy, Brazil and Russia have fallen into tough times. Both are largely admittedly of their own fault?especially Russia. The country's invasion of the Ukraine has led to sanctions that are gradually squeezing the economy. But let's take a moment and consider Brazil. Once a booming and proud member of the BRIC region, high inflation, large debts, and stagnant disposable incomes make it look like Brazil's economy will shrink this year. What does this mean for Brazil's medtech markets? Let's take a look.
Primarily, we?ve had to significantly downgrade our growth forecasts. Take the spinal implant and bone graft substitute (BGS) market, for example. Back in 2012, we were predicting 13% growth, with growth decelerating as the market matured. Fast forward a couple years, and the market is only growing at 6% annually, with slower growth in the next few years while the economy recovers. This would put it at smaller than India's market in 10 years. It's a similar story in the cardiovascular world. Take electrophysiology (EP) mapping and ablation device market: growth forecasts have been slowed right down, with 8.5% year-on-year predicted instead of nearly 15%.
But you can always rely on the dental implant market to improve Brazil's story. Even with this grim economic outlook, the Brazilian dental implant market is still looking pretty good. Even though growth forecasts have been brought back a bit, the Brazilian market even manages to eclipse the Chinese market through 2020. A well-established industry backed by a ton of reliable, low-cost vendors is to be thanked here.
Nonetheless, the truth is that medtech markets will always fluctuate with economics, as nice as it would be to imagine that health care and GDPs exist in different realms. Access to procedures depends on infrastructure and reimbursement availability, which can depend on a country's economic situation, and a patient's ability to cover the excess or to pay for procedures out-of-pocket depends on the private insurance situation and disposable incomes.
Down goes Brazil's economy, down go the medtech market forecasts.